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A practical weekly energy brief for business owners, CFOs, building owners, and senior operators
This week’s EnergyEdge signal is WATCH – BUY SELECTIVELY. Natural-gas fundamentals remain comparatively comfortable, while PJM’s capacity and infrastructure challenge remains structural. For a business owner or CFO, that means this is a good time to refresh offers and improve budget visibility – not a reason to assume the full retail bill is headed lower.
Three Takeaways for Business Leaders
- EIA reported 3,169 Bcf of Lower 48 working gas in storage as of August 14, up 16 Bcf for the week.
- EIA’s August outlook forecasts third-quarter Henry Hub gas at $2.87/MMBtu.
- PJM expects demand to grow by more than 30,000 MW from 2024 through 2030, largely because of data centers, while new infrastructure is taking longer and costing more to build.
Natural Gas: Useful Breathing Room
Henry Hub spot gas averaged $2.79/MMBtu for the week ending August 14. Storage remains ample, although the latest build slowed to 16 Bcf and South Central storage declined by 13 Bcf.
Business implication: use the current backdrop to test offers for contracts expiring within 6 to 24 months. Compare the same start dates and terms, and separate fixed commodity charges from pass-through exposure. A forecast is a planning input, not a guaranteed price floor.
Electricity: The Total Bill Is More Than Fuel
PJM’s 2028/2029 capacity auction cleared at $325/MW-day and procured 6,831.3 MW less than the reliability requirement. Capacity is a wholesale grid-cost component, not a customer’s retail electricity rate, but it can influence future retail products and utility charges.
Business implication: compare the full delivered-cost structure. A lower energy charge can be offset by capacity, transmission, ancillary-service, demand, or utility-rider exposure.
| CFO LENS Wholesale fuel relief can help. It does not erase capacity, transmission, delivery, demand, utility-rider, or infrastructure costs. |
Data Centers Are a Regional Budget Issue
PJM says demand is expected to rise by more than 30,000 MW between 2024 and 2030, driven largely by data centers. It also says generation now takes about twice as long and costs about twice as much to build as it did a decade ago.
Business implication: facilities that are expanding, relocating, electrifying, or adding large loads should involve the utility early. Grid timing can become a capital-project risk even for companies that do not operate data centers.
Five Actions to Take Now
- Map every electricity and gas contract expiration.
- Refresh facility-specific quotes where the decision window is 6 to 24 months.
- Compare the same term, start date, and pass-through treatment.
- Review interval and demand data before peak-sensitive operating decisions.
- Agree on buy, wait, and monitor triggers before renewal pressure builds.
WATCH – BUY SELECTIVELY. Gather comparable offers and keep winter and regional risk in view. Act when the facility-specific economics support the decision, not because one wholesale headline is loud.
| NEXT STEP Subscribe to the weekly EnergyEdge Energy Report, or book a free 20-minute Energy Consult with Scott A. Van Kerkhove / ScottieV. Bring one recent utility bill and your contract end date. |
